This article on the TE position will complete my initial Dynasty rankings for the 2010 season.  Since the main interest in this position is in leagues that award points-per-reception (PPR), the rankings will be based on standard scoring in a PPR league.

Below are my top 30 TEs ranked as I would pick them in a startup Dynasty league. Players are listed in tiers of roughly equal value, with the age the player turns this year in parenthesis.  Rookies are designated by an asterisk after their name.

Tier 1

1 - Jermichael Finley (23) Packers

At the end of last season, Jermichael Finley emerged as the # 1 receiving option on one of most explosive offenses in the league.  He was not only looked upon to move the chains between the 20’s, but was also targeted more often than any other Packer’s’ receiver in the red zone.  In his last game of the season, he caught 6 passes for 159 yards in the 45-51 wildcard loss to the Cardinals.

I haven’t been this excited about a TE prospect since Antonio Gates had his breakout year in 2004.  Yes, we haven’t seen sustained production for this 6-5, 247 lbs player (who looks and moves more like an oversized WR).  However, the Packers seemed to be running the offense through him and I am guessing that it will continue this year.

2 - Vernon Davis (26) 49ers

Going into the 2009 season, Vernon Davis appeared to be just another one of those chronically underachieving players who flash elite talent but never can sustain consistent production on the field (see Roy Williams).

However, it appears that some tough love from Mike Singletary was all that Davis needed.  Under this new HC, he finally delivered on his unfulfilled promise with 78 receptions for 965 yards and 13 TDs.

Yes, it appears that Vernon Davis has finally arrived and should continue to figure heavily in the 49ers passing scheme.  Some Fantasy analysts have expressed concern about the presence of future uber-stud WR Michael Crabtree.  However, given the lack of other serious competition in the receiving corps, there should be enough balls to go around for both Davis and Crabtree to put up some fine numbers.

3 - Antonio Gates (30) Chargers

In 2009, Antonio Gates not only led the league among TEs with 1157 yards (a career high for him) while also posting a stellar 72.3 yards per game.

I certainly wouldn’t second guess anyone who would still rank him as the # 1 TE in the Fantasy leagues, however for the reasons detailed below he is not the slam-dunk choice of recent years.

To begin with, Gates does not appear to me to be the dominating player that he once was.  That may seem odd to say given his performance of last year - but the numbers may have hidden the fact that age is catching up with him.  Yes, he only turns 30 this month (on 6-18) but TEs don’t have the shelf life of WRs and an age related drop in production sometimes TEs in their early 30’s.

Also, as I mentioned my WR rankings, Vincent Jackson has been steadily improving and this year may displace Gates as the go-to guy in the red zone.  Also, since rookie RB Ryan Mathews is not noted for his receiving skills, Darren Sproles should see a lot more third down situations and I would tend to think a lot of balls that traditionally have gone to Gates may go to Sproles instead.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love to own Gates in any of my Dynasty teams.  It is just that unlike previous years, there are just as many options I like as well or better.

4 - Kellen Winslow (27) Buccaneers

Kellen Winslow was the go-to guy for Josh Freeman last year.  With a couple of rookie WRs starting for the Bucs, I would expect similar numbers to what we saw from his last year - 77 receptions for 884 yards and 5 TDs.

There is always the issue of his knees and to what extent those past injuries will shorten his career.  Since I weigh the next two years at 80% of a player’s worth in my Dynasty rankings, his career longevity is not that great an issue to me.  However, those who look to a more traditional 3-5 year time frame of value should downgrade him accordingly.

5 - Dallas Clark (31) Colts

Dallas Clark is one of the few players past the age of 30 that I can remember who came off a career year and then exceeded it the following season.  Clark led all TEs in receptions with 100, and was close to the top in most other categories with 1106 yards and 10 TDs.

It should be noted that this was the second year in a row that the stars aligned perfectly for him.  In 2008, the Colts were dealing with the transition from Marvin Harrison to Anthony Gonzalez as the # 2 WR and Clark picked up the slack.  Last season, Gonzalez was injured and Manning had to break in Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, with Clark again being the beneficiary.

Clark turns 31 this season and although he has shown no signs of slowing down, at some point age will catch up with him – probably not this year, but who can say for sure.  Also, HC Jim Caldwell has talked about using 4 WR sets this year (perhaps to answer the success of the Saints) and if Wayne, Caldwell, Garcon and Gonzalez are all in the mix, I imagine it would have to be at the expense of Clark.

6 - Jason Witten (28) Cowboys

Jason Witten was the # 1 TE chosen in most drafts last year and his numbers overall were disappointing for his owners.  While he had 94 catches for 1030 yards, he only had a meager 2 TDs.

Perhaps the emergence of Miles Austin reduced his TD production.  But whatever the reason, on 06-09-10 Rotoworld reported that HC Wade Phillips admitted that the Cowboys made a mistake in not using Jason Witten in the red zone last season.

The article went on to mention that the Cowboys are focusing on their red-zone offense this season and that Witten is at the forefront of their minds.

What this all means is that even with the addition of Dez Bryant, Witten may be seriously undervalued in drafts this year and could bounce back to finish as the # 1 Fantasy TE as he was in 2008.

Tier 2

This is the tier where things start to get fun, with several players who could easily crack the Top 5, but who can be had at a much cheaper price.

7 - Zack Miller (25) Raiders

I expected Zack Miller to have a breakout year in 2009 and he probably would have if Al Davis hadn’t insisted that the team continue with their failed experiment of Jamarcus Russell.  Despite the woes at the QB position, Miller had his best ever year statistically with 66 receptions for 805 yards and 3 TDs.

Raider players are always underrated in Fantasy circles and Miller will probably be overlooked again in most drafts.  Jason Campbell can actually throw the ball and he has shown no hesitancy in going to his TE (as Chris Cooley owners can attest).  Of course, one never knows how things will play out in Oakland, but Miller seems poised to me to make quantum leap this year if he and Campbell can get on the same page.

8 - John Carlson (26) Seahawks

John Carlson showed us what he was capable of in his rookie season, when he led all Seahawk receivers with 55 catches for 627 yards and 5 TDs. Unfortunately, he was used more to block his sophomore year and his numbers remained static with 51 catches for 574 yards and 7 TDs.

However the recent news out of Seattle has been good for Carlson.  Veteran Chris Baker was signed and should take care of more of the blocking duties, freeing up Carlson to be a greater factor in the passing game.

In addition, Russell Okung an offensive tackle from Oklahoma State was taken in the first round, so the offensive line should significantly improve. 

There is also talk of Carlson lining up as a slot receiver on some plays.  This makes sense if it is true that the starting WR lineup will probably be T. J. Houshmanzadeh and rookie Golden Tate (assuming Deion Branch is cut as rumored).

In any event, things seem to be moving in the right direction for John Carlson, and I expect him to have a big year.

9 - Brent Celek (25) Eagles

Does having Kevin Kolb as his QB help or hurt Brent Celek? You can make a persuasive argument either way, but until we see who Kolb becomes simpatico with, it may be best not to reach for Celek in the draft. 

That being said, let’s not forget that Celek had 76 receptions for 971 yards and 8 TDs last year.  Considering that Kolb is more accurate than McNabb in the short pass gaming, Celek could easily equal or exceed those numbers if he develops a good rapport with Kolb.

10 - Heath Miller (28) Steelers

After being a serviceable but unspectacular Fantasy TE for most of his career, Miller took it up a notch in 2009 with 76 catches for 789 yards and 6 TDs. 

Some observers don’t believe that this portends a trend that will be carried over into 2010.  Even before Big Ben’s suspension there was talk among Pittsburgh beat writers that the team would be more run oriented this year (passing less and returning to a more traditional power running team).

However, I do think that a good argument can be made that Miller’s number will probably match last year’s figures for at least the first half of the 2010 season.

To begin with, Santonio Holmes and his 138 targets from last year are history.  Mike Wallace will try to fill that void, but with both Wallace and a replacement QB transitioning to leadership roles (for the first four games at least) it should be expected that the more experienced Miller will continue to see as many targets as before.

Secondly, when Roethlisberger returns, he may be a bit rusty and will also continue to lean heavily on Miller on check down and in short yardage situations.  If Miller proves to be a solid contributor, it may well continue for the entire season.  However, beyond 2010 Miller again may find himself used more as a blocker who occasionally has a good Fantasy week.

11 -Tony Gonzalez (34) Falcons

From interviews he has given, Tony Gonzalez is taking his future one year at a time.  He may be back in 2011, or he may hang it up after this season and no one knows (including him) how long he will continue playing.

It is difficult to rank players (like Gonzalez and Favre) who may be in their final year, yet are still capable of Top 5 numbers.  How much that is worth turns to the needs or philosophy of the individual Fantasy owner.

Gonzalez turns 34 this season and while he has lost a step, the lack of proven receiving options on the Falcons (besides Reggie White) gives him the opportunity to put up some fine stats - possibly exceeding last year’s numbers of 83 catches for 867 yards and 6 TDs.

Tier 3

These are generally backups, but with the possibility to crack the Top 5 if the stars align properly.

12 - Owen Daniels (28) Texans

People are down on Daniels and probably rightfully so, as he is rehabbing the third ACL tear of his playing career.  Some players never fully recover from just one ACL injury, so Owens’ third go round with his knee increases the risk factor in acquiring him.

That being said, let’s not forget that at the time he was hurt he was the # 1 Fantasy TE and was on pace for 80 catches, 1038 yards and 10 TDs.  If he can fully recover those numbers would not be an unrealistic projection for 2020. 

It certainly helps his situation that the Texans did not address the WR position in either free agency or the draft (which means that, if healthy, Daniels could return being the second most targeted receiver after Andre Johnson)

However, the most recent reports out of Houston about Daniels have not been that encouraging.  On 05-26-10, Texans beat writer Nick Scurfield (on Twitter) quoted HC Gary Kubiak saying that while Daniels is “way ahead of schedule,” he might sit out all of the 11-on-11 drills during training camp. This calls into doubt that he will be ready for the season opener or can be counted on to be a meaningful Fantasy contributor until several weeks into the season.

13 - Chris Cooley (28) Redskins

Chris Cooley is another player who has his value clouded with uncertainty over his situation.  He has put up good numbers in the past (66/786/8 in 2007) but has a new coach, a new QB and a new offensive scheme.  Plus Fred Davis emerged as serious competition after Cooley missed the last half of the 2009 due to injury.

Yes, Cooley could have a fine season since Shanahan traditionally has had a TE friendly offense and McNabb has worked well with players in that position in Philadelphia (see Brent Celek’s numbers last year).

The only problem is that we don’t know if these changes will work to Cooley’s benefit.  There is also the possibility he may play second fiddle to Fred Davis, or that both TEs will split the pie, killing the Fantasy value of both of them.  I like Cooley as a bounce back candidate, but I am not as optimistic as most Fantasy analysts.

14 - Visanthe Shiancoe (30) Vikings

Shiancoe posted 56 catches for 566 and 11 TDs last season, with the TD production helping him crack the Top 5 among TEs in many leagues.  But that spike in his Fantasy numbers is attributable solely to the having Brett Favre at his QB.  This means that he has a good chance at repeating those numbers in 2010 (assuming Brett’s return) but with speculative value in the post-Favre era that may begin in 2011.

15 - Shawn Nelson (25) Bills

Well, somebody besides Lee Evans has got to catch the ball in Buffalo, so why not Shawn Nelson?  He is a natural pass catcher and Buffalo desperately needs someone to work the middle of the field. 

There has been some encouraging news regarding Nelson during the recent mini-camp, per Chris Brown of Buffalo.Bills.com.  According to Brown, Nelson has been a frequent target during both the 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills.  So, with no proven #2 WR option, the Bills may lean on their TE more than they have in past years.  Nelson is a nice sleeper pick with some potential big upside.

Tier 4

Probably not much value in this group for the season, but who can say for sure?

16 - Aaron Hernandez* (21) Patriots

Although Rob Gronkowski was taken by the same team before him in the draft, many scouts thought that Aaron Hernandez was the more talented of the two.  Hernandez was originally considered a borderline first round pick, but slipped to the fourth due to a torn muscle in his back, along with concerns over failed multiple drug tests as a Florida Gator.

The two rookie TEs may well negate each other’s value.  However Gronkowski is considered more of a blocking TE, so the player with upside is probably Hernandez.

It should also be noted that in a recent blog post, the Boston Globe predicted that Hernandez will play “a significant role as a rookie.”

17 - Tony Scheffler (26) Lions

Tony Scheffler is one of the better receiving TEs in the league, but lacked the submissive attitude that was required to fit into McDaniels’ offense in Denver.  He gets a fresh start in Detroit, but his short term upside will be limited by having to compete for targets with the likes of Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and the rookie RB Jahvid Best.

18 - Dustin Keller (26) Jets

Dustin Keller was a trendy sleeper pick going into the 2009 season.  It was expected that working with a rookie QB would improve upon his 2008 numbers of 48 catches for 535 yards and 3 TDs.

Oddly though, instead of having a breakthrough year, he statistically regressed and had only 45 catches for 522 yards and 2 TDs.

Perhaps the addition of Braylon Edwards cut into his receiving targets more than was expected.  However if that is the reason for his reduced production, then his numbers might deteriorate further now that Santonio Holmes has been added to the mix.

I have seen some predictions that Keller will do really well this year.  But I just don’t see it and the arguments made on his behalf are just not convincing (that the presence of Edwards and Holmes will demand deeper coverage down the field, which will open things more for Keller, particularly if teams are also committing to trying to stop the run).

19 - Greg Olsen (25) Bears

Greg Olsen will be Fantasy relevant again at some point in the future, but it probably won’t be in 2010. 

Mike Martz is now the Bears OC and TEs in his system are used primarily to block and have never had much Fantasy value.  There has been talk out of Bears camp that Olsen has too much talent not to be utilized - but we heard the same thing in San Francisco about Vernon Davis (and his numbers under Martz were 31 receptions, 358 yards and 2 TDs).

So Olsen will be in Fantasy hell until Martz is fired or Olsen finds a new team.  I think the former is the most likely scenario.  In any event, Olsen is a player that has value only as a backup for the current season.

20 - Zach Miller (26) Jacksonville

For those who were paying attention, the other Zack Miller got it together at the end of last season and has the potential to develop into one of the better Fantasy TE in the league.  Per Jaguars.com, assistant coach Mike Tice has said that he believes that Miller could become a Dallas Clark type player in the future, “Clark is the guy we are going to emulate,” Tice said of Miller’s development. “He would be a good role model.”

Miller still has Marcedes Lewis ahead of him of the depth chart, but I think Lewis will be used more as the blocking TE, allowing Miller to get into the mix of receiving options.  Considering that Mike Sims-Walker is the only proven commodity in the receiving corps, there is a real good opportunity for this Zack Miller to step up if he is given the chance.

21 - Jermaine Gresham* (22) Bengals

Jermaine Gresham is the most highly regarded rookie TE prospect to have come along in years, but landed in a horrible situation in Cincinnati.  Yes, I know that talent eventually wins out over situation, but there is too much competition for the foreseeable future (like the next two seasons) for me to take Gresham seriously in a Dynasty league).  If you have the patience and roster space to wait three years, then definitely add him to your team.

22 - Jared Cook (23) Titans

People keep raving about the potential this guy has, but so far his talent has not translated into anything we have seen on the field.  I have been singularly unimpressed with Cook so far.  However I must note that I was hearing similar praise about Jermichael Finley before he broke out last year – so there may be more here than meets the eye.

23 - Fred Davis (24) Redskins

The Redskins did not seem to miss a beat with Davis after Chris Cooley went down to injury.  Several Fantasy analysts seem to think that Davis is the better player of the two.  But even if Davis does not displace Cooley, the Redskins may use a two TE set that might give both some decent Fantasy value.

24 - Tony Moeaki* (23) Chiefs

Tony Moeaki was the fourth TE taken in the draft at # 93 overall and the Chiefs traded up to take him.  He impressed observers at the mini-camp in early May and essentially does not have any competition to speak of (the incumbents are Leonard Pope and Brad Cottam).

Given the circumstances, we could see him become a starter sometime his rookie year.  Assuming that, the main question is, how much upside does he have?

Since Tony Gonzalez has left, the Chiefs have made limited use of the TE position in their offense (outside of blocking).  Adding to that, Dexter McCluster may be used as a slot receiver and that would seem to be at the Fantasy expense of whoever is lined up at TE.  Consequently, it is extremely difficult to project at this time what type of numbers Moeaki could put up.  But, considering how cheaply he can be had, I am taking a flyer on him in a couple leagues.

25 - Jeremy Shockey (30) Saints

With injuries and health related issues both off and on the field, Shockey appears to be on the downside of his career.  It doesn’t help matters that he is on a team that is overstocked with other receiving options.  He is still capable of putting up top Fantasy numbers in any given week, but they coming so infrequently that he is not worth more than bye-week fill in material.

Tier 5

Some long term projects and a few players who might benefit from a change of scenery.

26 - Dennis Pitta* (25) Ravens

Pitta is in a similar situation to Hernandez with the Patriots.  He was drafted after another rookie (Ed Dickson) but is considered a better prospect by many scouts.  Of the two, I see him as being the most likely to replace the aging and injury prone Todd Heap.

27 - Fendi Onobun* (24) Rams

Fendi Onobun sounds like something you might find at a take-out place specializing in Mediterranean food.  However, he is a rookie prospect taken by the Rams in the sixth round and can charitably be described as a long-term prospect.

Onobun is a converted basketball player whose entire experience of playing football since high school was one season with the Houston Cougars, in which he caught a grand total of two passes.

He is definitely a raw prospect but the Rams drafted him solely because of some staggering numbers he put up on his pro day.  He so impressed some observers that he has been described as having the body of a TE but with the athletic ability of a first round WR.  He will definitely be a work-in-progress, and is probably worth stashing in deeper leagues for those with extra roster space.

28 - Anthony Fasano (26) Dolphins

Anthony Fasano has shown flashes of brilliance and occasionally puts up a game of about 5 catches for 70 yards.  The problem is that the Dolphins have too many other receiving options, so it is doubtful that his true potential will ever be realized. 

It is shame too, in that a couple years back I honesty thought he could put up Jason Witten like numbers if he was used properly.  His former coach, Bill Parcels, moved up in the draft to trade for Fasano, but so far this reunion has not paid any dividends to his Fantasy owners.

29 - Jimmy Graham* (24) Saints

Jimmy Graham has been falling somewhere in the fourth rounds of rookie drafts, so there is not a whole lot of excitement about him.  However he looks to be a nice player to stash in deeper roster leagues (even for those who do not own Jeremy Shockey).  Nothing much to see here but down the line he may have some value on a prolific passing team like the Saints (and yes, I know Dave Thomas is also ahead of him on the depth chart).

30 - Martellus Bennett (23) Cowboys

Bennett has shown the talent to be a starting TE, but his Fantasy value will be limited for as long as he is on the Cowboys.  Not only does he have Jason Witten in front of him, but there are way too many other receiving options (i.e. Austin and Bryant) for him to ever have much value in Dallas.  He is young enough to still make his mark in the league, but we are talking a year or two down the road and probably with another franchise.

Next: A look at Dynasty league trading.

^{Copyright © 2010 Jay Charles Johnson, all rights reserved}

I can be reached at jaycharles.johnson@gmail.com