This is the second in a series of four articles ranking players in Dynasty leagues as I would take them in a start-up Fantasy draft. This article will look at the Running Back position.

The players listed are based on a 3 year time frame with 2010 representing 50% of value, 2011 at 30%, with years 2012 and thereafter at 20%.

These rankings are for a 12 team league that does not award additional points per reception (PPR).  I must note, however, that I play exclusively in PPR leagues, so my thinking is geared in that direction.  Consequently, RBs that are also good receivers may be ranked higher than they should be.

Here are my top 70 Dynasty RBs, arranged in tiers of roughly equivalent value. The age the player turns this year is in parenthesis, while rookies are denoted by an asterisk after their name.

First Tier

1 – Chris Johnson (25)

It is a no-brainer to list Chris Johnson at the top spot after his 2009 season, rushing for 2006 yards (averaging 125.4 yards per game) and 16 TDs, plus 50 receptions for another 503 yards and 2 TDs.

Yes, I will agree with his critics that his numbers will probably decrease this year (well, duh).  That said, I see in nothing in his situation to downgrade from the top spot.

2 – Maurice Jones-Drew (25)

Jones-Drew quelled criticism that he couldn’t hold up as an every-down-back, carrying the rock 312 times last season for 1391 yards and 15 TDS (second only to Peterson).

If you want to quibble, he was not quite as productive in the second half of the season, as 10 of his 15 TDS came during the first 8 weeks.  There were also some wild fluctuations in his rushing stats - in 4 games he rushed for 110+ yards, while he had 6 games in which he was at 66 yards or below.

But let’s face it - this guy is a Fantasy cash cow and has 56 TDS in 63 career games (with many of those as a part time player).  The only worry would seem to be an increased likelihood of injury if he continues this heavy workload.  However the Jaguars receiving game seems to be developing (albeit slowly) so the burden on Jones-Drew should hopefully lessen over time.

3 – Adrian Peterson (25)

Adrian Peterson led all RBs in rushing TDs with 18 for the season.  His running stats weren’t too shabby either with 314 carries for 1383 yards (fifth best) and averaged an OK 4.4 yards per carry.

He also had the dubious distinction of leading the league with 7 fumbles (tied with Slayton) although that doesn’t concern me as Eric Dickerson had just as many fumbles at this stage of his career.

But I must say that the drafting of Toby Gerhart does bother me a Peterson owner. I expected Gerhart to eventually become the lead back for whatever team drafted him.  That obviously is not going to happen as long as Peterson is in the picture, but Gerhart does pose a threat to Peterson’s Fantasy value in stealing touches, particularly at the goal line.

4 – Ray Rice (23)

As I was doing my research for this article, I ran across Fantasy prognosticators who compared the running style of Ray Rice to Emmit Smith, his balance to Barry Sanders, his power to Maurice Jones-Drew and his receiving skills to Marshall Faulk

That is probably hyperbole, but to a certain extent Rice lived up to it in 2009, accounting for over 1800 all purpose yards and 8 TDs.  The actual breakdown is 254 rushes for 1139 yards and 7 TDs, with 78 receptions for 702 yards and 1 TD on the ground.

If I thought Rice could increase his TD production significantly (only 8 total last year) I might have him at the top spot.  However, Willis McGahee was resigned and is a threat to be used again as a goal line back at Rice’s expense.

Despite that, the Ravens did make some important additions to their receiving corps which can only help in the development Joe Flacco and the passing game.  That will take pressure off of defenses trying to stop and run and should improve Rice’s numbers. I think Rice reaching over 2000 all purpose yards this season in a distinct possibility.

Second Tier

These are not the elites, but I would be comfortable with any of them as a starter.

5 – Shonn Greene (25)

Shonn Greene came alive in the playoffs with big games against the Bengals and the Chargers.  He also was impressive in the conference game against the Colts and the team seemed to lose momentum after he injured and replaced by Thomas Jones.

Both Jones and Leon Washington were given their walking papers with LaDainian Tomlinson and rookie Joe McKnight brought in as replacements.  However, I don’t see either of these players as a serious threat to cutting into Greene’s numbers.

Despite the addition of Santonio Holmes to the receiving corps, the Jets should remain a run-oriented offense with Greene as their centerpiece.  He is not a factor in the passing game, but I would still probably have him this high in PPR leagues.

6 – Frank Gore (27)

Frank Gore is solid, dependable, and on an improving 49ers team that no longer has to rely on him as their main offensive weapon.  Despite missing two games to an ankle injury, Gore still rushed 229 times for 1120 yards and 10 TDs, while also having 52 receptions for 406 yards and 3 TDs.  At 27 he should have 2-3 years of Top 10 production left in him.

7 – Michael Turner (28)

Michael Turner missed several games last year due to a high ankle sprain, but remains as of the safest picks one can make for their # 1 RB.

Although he is 28, he doesn’t have the mileage (number of carries) that most featured backs have at his age.  Still, one might wonder how many years of productivity he has left since there seems to be an age related decline among RBs as they approach/hit their third decade.

Under my evaluation process, the next two years represent 80% of a player’s value.  So, I am quite comfortable having Turner ranked at this spot.  However those who are looking at a longer time frame should downgrade him accordingly.   

8 – Jonathan Stewart (23)

By all appearances, Jonathan Stewart is an elite talent and a potential uber-stud.  The problem is the continued presence of DeAngelo Williams.

Despite sharing carries with Williams, Stewart still rushed for 1133 yards and 10 TDs.  But, as long as Williams remains on the Panthers, there is a limitation on Stewart’s upside.

In theory, talent eventually wins out over a situation and Stewart should at some point move into the elite WR top tier.  The problem is the uncertainty over both William’s future with the Panthers, along with that of HC John Fox.  As this juncture, we can’t say Stewart will be any more productive in the next two seasons than he was in 2009.

9 – Rashard Mendenhall (23)

Before the Big Ben debacle, owner Art Rooney Jr. went on record as saying that in 2010 he wanted his team to return to a traditional Steeler offense of power running football.  The only question seems to be is if Mendenhall is up to the task.

From what we have seen, Mendenhall could well be a future elite stud RB, but he could also turn out to be the next Lawrence Maroney (showing flashes of brilliance early in his career but ultimately turning out to be mediocre).

On the plus side, Mendenhall started out great last year, averaging 5.73 YPC over the first 7 games.  He finished the season rushing 261 times for 1108 yards and 7 TDs, along with 27 receptions for 278 yards and 1 TD.

However, the overall numbers hide the fact that he had a second half swoon, averaging just. 3.77 YPC over the last 8 games. 

Also, his best games were against some of the worst rush defenses in the league, among them Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and San Diego.  Against the elite defenses (Cincinnati, Green Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore) he rushed for 3.67 YPC.  Arguably, if he is a potential elite RB, he should not be struggling against the better defenses.

In summary, while I once thought that Mendenhall would be Fantasy gold, there are now some legitimate reasons to question his future productivity.  We should know one way or another where he stands after the coming season is over.

10 – Chris “Beanie” Wells (22)

The retirement of Kurt Warner was the probably the best news that Wells’ Fantasy owners could have hoped for. When HC Ken Whisenhunt arrived from Pittsburgh, he was expected to develop a strong running game.  But having Warner and two elite receivers he understandably decided to make Arizona a predominantly pass oriented offense.

Expect that to change this year, as Matt Leinart is no Kurt Warner at this stage of his development.  Quite simply, the Cardinals will have to run more while Leinart transitions to the starter’s role.  Look for this team to methodically pound the ball on the ground behind Wells (who looked special in the limited action we saw last year).

This is not to say that there aren’t some issues with Wells.  He has shown a tendency to fumble, he needs to improve his pass protection and must demonstrate that he can stay healthy over the course of an entire season.

That being said, he doesn’t seem to have any problems with the physical aspects of the game.  He is a big guy (6-1, 228) has speed to get to the perimeter, can run downhill with power and has the proven elusiveness to make people miss.

Tim Hightower remains in the mix and will limit Wells production somewhat, but Wells should emerge this season as the bell-cow back.  Some people are shying away from Wells due to the QB situation, but even if Leinart doesn’t work out I think that would be a mistake from a longer term perspective.

11 – Jamaal Charles (24)

Jamal Charles finished the 2010 season on a tear – in the final four weeks he rushed for 659 yards and 4 TDs.  Although perhaps it might be better to just look at the last half of the season.  In Weeks 10-17 he rushed for 968 yards and 7 TDs and over that 8 game period he averaged about 120 yards and a TD per week.

While these numbers looks impressive, it should be taken into account they include the season finale in Denver where he rushed for 259 yards and 2 TDs (arguably an outlier).  Also it must be noted that six of his last eight games were against some of the worst run-defenses in the league, including the aforementioned Denver (twice) along with Oakland, San Diego, Denver Buffalo and Cleveland. 

What this all means is that it is just as likely to view Charles as a one-year-wonder as it is to anoint him as a future stud RB.  I tend to view him as a legitimate long term prospect but those that see his 2009 numbers as Fantasy fool’s gold could just as well be right.

On a closing note with Charles, I don’t see the additions of Thomas Jones and rookie Dexter McCluster as significant threats to his production.  Jones turns 32 this year and faded badly at the end of last season.  McCluster was used as a RB his last season at Ole Miss, but was drafted as a WR by the Chiefs and I expect him to eventually have a Wes Welker role in Kansas City as a slot receiver.

Third Tier

Many in this group could end the year in the Top 10, but a variety of factors causes me to view them more as # 2 RBs. 

12 – Ryan Mathews* (23) Chargers

Mathews was considered the safest rookie pick any NFL franchise could make if they were looking for an every down RB.  This 5-11, 229 lbs prospect from Fresno State was the NCAA leading rusher of 2009, with 276 carries for 1808 yards and 19 TDs.

The main criticism of Mathews is that he lacks a second gear and does not possess the top end speed that is found in elite RBs.  In addition, he was not a receiving threat in college, having only 19 catches for 268 yards over three college seasons.

Generally it is not a good idea to draft a rookie as your # 1 RB, but if ever an exception should be made, this would be it.  Mathews landed an ideal situation in San Diego - on a player caliber team with an established running offense.  If a declining Tomlinson can post 703 yards and 12 TDs in 14 games, a projection of 1100 yards and 13 TDs for this rookie does not seem unreasonable.

13 – Felix Jones (23)

Felix Jones is currently atop the depth chart in Dallas, as he moved into the #1 RB slot at the Cowboys recent mini-camp.  Jones is an electrifying player who has been touted as having Top 10 potential, and it appears will be now given the opportunity to prove it.

We haven’t seen that much of Jones as he only had 116 carries last year, although his 5.9 YPC average tied for best in the league with Jamal Charles.  Durability issues seem the main concern, as Jones has not demonstrated he can stay healthy over the course of an entire season.  Certainly, we will find out if can handle a heavier workload, which is projected at 200+ carries.

Felix Jones seems the high risk/high reward play of 2010.  It would not surprise me if he finished in the Top 5 among RBs, while it also wouldn’t shock me if he finished the season on injured reserve.  Jones is not recommended for the risk adverse owner.

14 – DeAngelo Williams (27)

If Williams were on any other team but the Panthers I would definitely have him in the Top 10, but his upside will be limited for as long as he is in a RBBC with Jonathan Stewart.  Despite the competition, Williams had respectable numbers of 216 rushes for 1117 yards and 7 TDs, plus 29 receptions for 252 yards.

Len Pasquarelli of ESPN has said that Carolina will lock up Williams with a contract extension sometime before the 2010 season starts.  If that is the case, then a trade is unlikely and Williams may remain mired in some sort of RBBC for the foreseeable future.

15 – Steven Jackson (27)

Based on his 2009 production alone, I probably have Steven Jackson ranked way too low.  However, there is a tendency in Fantasy Football to look in the rear view mirror and there are some problems I have with Jackson.

Yes, he did well on arguably the worst team in the NFL.  Despite being the only thing the Rams had going for them on offense, Jackson still finished third overall in rushing, with 324 carries for 1416 yards (but only 4 TDs).

However, the Rams have done nothing to improve their offense in the short term to take the pressure off of Jackson.  Yes, Sam Bradford may be a future star in the league - but opposing defenses are going to continue to stack the line of scrimmage against the run until this rookie QB can prove he can beat them with the pass (don’t hold your breath on seeing that this year).

My second concern about Steven Jackson is that he played the last month of the 2009 season with a herniated disk in his back.  HC Steve Spagnuolo recently disclosed to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that in April Jackson underwent back surgery to correct this problem.  Spagnuolo referred to the surgery as “a minor procedure.”

Sorry, but I don’t view any back surgery as “a minor procedure” and Jackson’s value takes a major hit until we can see how this recovery goes.  Also, it will probably a few weeks into the season before we know for sure that he is back to 100%.

I am not saying Jackson isn’t capable of returning to the Top 10, but his health status combined with a rookie QB behind center puts him on my avoid list.  I am sure there won’t be 14 RBs taken before him in most drafts - that is fine with me as I just as soon would let someone else deal with the potential downside.

16 – Jahvid Best* (21) Lions

In viewing his YouTube highlights, Jahvid Best appeared to me to be the purest “homerun” hitter among the RBs of his class.  C. J. Spiller has better acceleration but Best seemed to have better moves, vision and instincts, making him more likely to make the big plays at the next level.

He landed in an ideal spot in Detroit, and word out of the recent mini-camp is that he has already been penciled at the featured RB for this team.  With his speed and explosiveness he could well end up rookie of the year on a franchise that suddenly seems to be making all the right moves

That is not to say that there are not legitimate concerns about Best.  He does not appear to have the ideal size for a featured back at 5-9 and 190 lbs.  However, similar concerns were voiced about Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice, which now seem unwarranted.

The main issue with Jahvid Best is his concussion history.  In particular, he had one of the worst looking collisions I have ever seen, in a game last November against Oregon State. Best was hit in midair while making a goal-line dive over the pile, which spun him around and he landed on the back of his head.  His helmet came off in the fall and he was knocked unconscious.  He did not play any games after that in the season.

In summary, we are dealing with a potential elite talent whose playing career could be ended with one more serious head injury.  If you draft Best you have to face the possibility that he could well be out of the league within 3-5 years (maybe before that).  He has the potential to put up scary Fantasy numbers in Detroit and if I can have that for a year or two, I can live with the injury risk – but I am gambler by nature.

17 – Pierre Thomas (26)

Hmmm.  The Saints did not address the RB position in the draft and backup Mike Bell (who vultured goal-line TDs from Thomas) is no longer with the team.  Currently, the only players behind Thomas on the depth chart are Reggie Bush (who is now considered a third down back) and the unheralded Lynell Hamilton.

This all makes it look as if Thomas will be the Saints bell-cow back, being occasionally spent by Bush or Lynell. One would have to expect some improvement over the 2009 stats of Thomas, which were 147 rushes for 793 yards, 6 TDs, plus 39 receptions for 302 yards, 2 TDs.  The pass-happy Saints offense seems the main limitation on his upside.

18 – Ryan Grant (28) 

The main knock against Ryan Grant is that he is nothing really special.  But the Packers obviously don’t feel that way as they did not (as expected) take a speed back in the draft to push him.

The only RB taken in the draft by Green Bay was James Starks in the sixth round.  Starks is similar to Fred Jackson in that he is a good complimentary player with excellent receiving skills – but he is not seen as a threat to displace Grant.

I may be underrating Grant, as he finished as the # 8 RB in most Fantasy leagues last year.  He also has shown consistency by having over 1200 yards rushing over the last two seasons (with 11 TDs in 2009).  He is durable and has not missing a game since becoming the starter in midseason 2007.  Add to that, he had a decent 4.4 YPC with just one fumble last year.  All things considered, Grant is a solid but unspectacular player.

Fourth Tier

Some nice choices here, but involving much more risk.

19 – C. J. Spiller* (23) Bills

Spiller landed in a horrible situation in Buffalo.  The team has offensive line woes, a mediocre group of QBs and no receiving threat outside of Lee Evans.  Plus there were already two established RBs on the roster in Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.

Early reports seem to indicate that the Bills plan to use Spiller as a combination of Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin.  Per BuffaloBills.com, HC Chan Gailey was quoted as saying that they “won’t be shy about” playing spiller in the slot. 

It appears that Spiller will be used at times in some sort of RBBC and at others lining up in the slot and taking occasional pitches and reverses out of the backfield.  Spiller should have greater value in PPR leagues but his owners should not expect him to be a solid Fantasy contributor in 2010.

20 – Ben Tate* (22) Houston

Ben Tate can be taken with 1.05 in most rookie drafts and it would not surprise me if his first year stats are better than any player taken above him.  He is a complete running back with blazing speed on a playoff caliber team.

Tate wowed observers at the combine by running a 4.43 40 time, which was fourth best among RBs.  What made it impressive was that the three players who had better times than Tate were all at least 20 pounds lighter.

Stat wonks should note that Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/) gave Tate the highest Speed Score of all RBs.  Speed Score in a matrix that calculates a number based on the players weight x 200/40 time.  Tate heads his class with a Speed Score of 114.2.  To put this in perspective, the average first round draft pick has a score of 111.8 and Chris Johnson topped the list two years ago with a Speed Score of 121.9.

The site Football Diehards (http://www.footballdiehards.com/) has a matrix where they look at a player’s Second Gear (how fast he runs the second 20 yards in the 40 yard dash) and Tate was the fastest overall at 1.82 seconds (with Best third and Spiller fourth).  They also found Tate was the third fastest player getting off the line, running the first ten yards of the 40 in 1.49 seconds (Best and Spiller were the top two at 1.48).

Now it true (as his critics contend) that Ben Tate is somewhat lacking in agility and is pretty much a north-south runner.  However, I will settle for that in any player who is that quick.  There is always the chance that Tate is just a “workout wonder” but that is risk I would be willing to take.

21 – Cedric Benson (28)

Despite finished # 8 in rushing among all RBs with 1251 yards, people are still not taking Cedric Benson that seriously.  Perhaps it is because he is on the Bengals and only scored 6 TDs.

More likely, he is not popular with Fantasy owners because they still view him as a disappointing first round pick that was cut by the Bears.

While the above is true, it should be noted that a lack of talent was never an issue with Benson – it was his brushes with the law, his work ethic and his poor relationship with teammates.

People can change and it appears that Benson finally got his act together and is starting to live up to the potential that the Bears saw in him when they made him the # 4 choice overall in the 2005 draft.  As in 2009, Benson could once again be seriously undervalued in Fantasy leagues.

22 – Knowshon Moreno (23)

Moreno was the first RB chosen in last year’s draft and produced more rushing yards (965) and TDs (7) than his classmates.  However, some observers of his rookie season in Denver felt that his first name should be changed to Knowpower, Knowspeed or Knowskills.

I didn’t see all of his games, but Moreno seems to lack explosiveness and does not appear to have the homerun threat capability that you would want in a featured back.

He was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter and averaged a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry.  What makes matters even worse, his average YPC in weeks 14, 15 and 16 were 2.7, 2.2 and 2.0 respectively (ugh).

Add to this, Josh McDaniels has had a history of RBBC.  When J. J. Arrington recently resigned with the Broncos, Daniels was gushing over him - comparing Arrington to Kevin Faulk and remarking how much he likes to use multiple backs in a game.

It is real hard for me to get enthusiastic over this player. I could well be wrong but initial indications are that Moreno does not have the upside to be anything more than a # 2 RB for Fantasy purposes.

23 – LeSean McCoy (22)

Brian Westbrook is history, but initial indications are that LeSean McCoy may not be the featured back for the Eagles, at least in 2010.  Eagles beat writer Jeff McLane has predicted that McCoy will only get about 12-15 carries a game, sharing the workload with Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver.

It is true that McCoy had nearly 1000 combined rushing and receiving yards as a rookie - however he did not crack the Top 40 in non-PPR leagues.  Part of the problem was that he was pulled in goal line situations in favor of Leonard Weaver (a role probably played by Mike Bell this year)

Certainly he distinguished himself among rookie RBs in the receiving department, leading the pack with 41 receptions for 347 yards. And a big plus in his favor is that he is in a system that is known for utilizing a receiver out of the backfield.

It is interesting to note that the Eagles ran the ball only 301 times in 2009, about 50 carries less than the normal yearly production.  If those carries were to go to McCoy (admittedly a big “if”) he could conceivably carry the ball 200+ times and at an average of 4.1 to 4.2 yards, that give him about 820-920 yards.  If you add another 300-400 yards receiving, that could make him a solid # 2 RB in just about any league. 

One should recall that Westbrook was also not considered an every down back when he was drafted and did not breakout until his third season in the league. 

Once he got the opportunity to be the starter (as a result of injury) he seized the opportunity and never looked back. Perhaps that will be the case for McCoy if he is ever given the chance.

Fifth Tier

Here is where things start to get really dicey…

24 – Donald Brown (23)

Donald Brown was expected to replace Joseph Addai as the lead RB for the Colts, but injures hampered the development of his rookie year. 

Before he was hurt he did look to be the more dynamic back of the two - the offense seemed to have a different pace with him when they were both taking equal snaps early in the season.

I still think Brown will eventually displace Addai as the starter, but Addai has hung on surprisingly well and it would not be a surprise to see this duo in a RBBC for the entire 2010 year.  

25 – Montario Hardesty* (23) Browns

Hardesty was a late bloomer at Tennessee and this one-cut runner is surprisingly quick for a guy weighing 225 pounds.  Among his other attributes is that he is versatile and has shown the ability to carry the load in a pro-style system.  He is also sure handed (never lost a fumble in college) and is regarded as a high-character person.

There is a downside of course.  He reminds me of Matt Forte, in that while he does everything well, there seems nothing special in his skill set.  In practical terms, that means that he is not talented enough to overcome a bad situation.

And he did land in a bad situation in Cleveland. The expectations are that Hardesty will replace Jerome Harrison as the starter sometime during the 2010 season.  His value beyond that will turn on how much the Browns improve from the woeful team we have seen over the last few seasons.

26 – Matt Forte (25)

Throw out the 2009 season of Forte.  The Bears offensive line couldn’t block and Forte was tacked half the time in the backfield. 

To make things worse, when the team abandoned the run (which was quite often) they inexplicably involved Forte less in the passing game than they had in 2008.  Forte has shown to be a reliable pass catcher with good hands, but bizarrely he saw fewer targets in 2009 than the prior year, even though there was a dramatic increase in passing plays.

The offseason acquisition of Chester Taylor has taken Forte’s value to an all time low.  Some believe that Taylor will emerge as the lead back.  I don’t think so, but I must admit that at this juncture the short term scenario looks to be some sort of RBBC.

Given Forte’s age and his 2008 performance, he should again emerge as the dominant RB in Chicago, but that is not a given and we may not see that happen this year.

27 – Joseph Addai (27)

After Donald Brown was drafted, Joseph Addai was pretty much written off as the Colts RB of the past, but he stubbornly held on and finished near the Top 20 among RBs with 219 carries for 828 yards and 10 TDs.  He even did better in PPR leagues finishing in the Top 10, as he accounted for 51 catches for 336 and another 3 TDs in the passing game.

I still tend to think Addai is in a Parker/Mendenhall situation with Brown, and he will eventually be displaced as the starter.  However, I am not so certain we will see the changing of the guard anytime soon.

28 – Brandon Jacobs (28)

Jacobs is ostensibly still the # 1 RB for the Giants, despite having his least effective year since becoming a starter in 2007.  Jacobs rushed for 835 yards and 5 TDs on 224 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per attempt.

It appears that he played all year with an undisclosed torn meniscus in his knee, which apparently hampered his production.  Normally I am skeptical of such post season reports - but in this case it is probably true, as I recall seeing message board comments that said it looked as if he lacked the burst he had shown in prior seasons.

In any event, Jacobs had offseason surgery and he says that “everything feels good.” He began running again recently and hopefully can return to the form he showed in 2007 with 1089 rushing yards and 15 TDs.

29 – Ahmad Bradshaw (24)

Ahmad Bradshaw was another of the walking wounded of the Giants 2009 backfield and played with fractured bones in both feet and an injured right ankle.  Bradshaw had off season corrective surgery which seems to have gone well, as he is running some again and appears on track to be playing in 2010.

It could well be that Bradshaw emerges as the featured back over the less versatile Jacobs, as he seemed more effective when he did play.  Bradshaw’s numbers for 2009 were 163 carries for 778 yards and 7 TDs - plus 21 receptions for another 207 yards.

30 – Ronnie Brown (29) 

Ronnie Brown has demonstrated Top 10 talent when he is healthy, but that is the rub, as for two of the last three seasons he has ended the year on IR.  This is a player that was never carried the full load in college and now seems prone to breaking down when he is asked to be the featured back.

Given his injury history, I doubt the Dolphins will overburden Brown, particularly with Ricky Williams and Lex Hilliard available to lighten the work load.  I wouldn’t expect more than a RBBC situation for Brown, although his upside makes him an attractive acquisition at this level.

Sixth Tier

Generally backups or in a RBBC but with the upside to crack the Top 20 under the right circumstances.

31 – Darren McFadden (23)

At the combine in February, Raiders coach Tom Cable told Jerry McDonald of The Contra Costa Times that Darren McFadden’s injuries have been the main thing holding him back, “Every time he’s gotten himself going and had pretty good production something has happened to either take him out of that game or not let him be a part of the next one.”

McFadden has been oft injured and has only played in about a dozen games in two NFL seasons.  Add to that, many of the games he did play last season were with Jamarcus Russell doing his QB impersonation (which pretty much killed the Fantasy value of all Raiders’ players).

Along with Russell, Justin Fargas, the starting RB from last year was also cut from the team.  That means either McFadden or Bush will emerge as the # 1 RB this year.  I am guessing that McFadden will get the first shot at being the starter, but one can never predict what the Raiders might do.

We have not yet seen enough of McFadden to write off this former # 4 first round pick of 2008 as a bust.  Consequently he retains great upside for a player that can be acquired fairly cheaply.

32 – Michael Bush (26)

Michael Bush is arguably among the most talented runners to come down the pike in the last 5 years, but due to circumstances has never gotten a legitimate shot to prove what he can do with the Raiders. 

There was talk in 2009 that he lacked motivation and didn’t push himself to his fullest either in practice or in games.  Well, if I had played for Oakland last season, I don’t know if I would have been able to give it my all either.

In any event, Bush will have the opportunity to compete for the starting spot this year, although Darren McFadden seems to be penciled in at the moment.  But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bush emerge as Oakland’s bell-cow with perhaps McFadden becoming the third down/pass catching threat.

33 – Toby Gerhart* (23) Vikings

Toby Gerhart is a great Dynasty acquisition if you are looking 4-5 years down the road, but his shorter term outlook leaves much to be desired.  He will get occasional work spelling Adrian Peterson and may get some goal line carries, but unless Peterson is injured, there is not a whole lot of value here in the foreseeable future.  Gerhart is probably a good investment for those with patience (which is not one of my attributes).

34 – Reggie Bush (26)

The jury is in that Reggie Bush is not an every down back - but his receiving skills and being on a pass happy offense makes him a solid flex starter in PPR leagues and a borderline # 3 RB in non-PPR leagues.

35 – Chester Taylor (31)

As noted in the Forte discussion, Chester Taylor could well be in some sort of RBBC situation.  However, I view him as more of a relief back or rather a high priced insurance policy for Forte.  Turning 31 this year, his age concerns me.  Despite the fact that he has little mileage on him, his shelf life may be limited by Father Time.

36 – Marion Barber III (27)

Felix Jones has been named the starter, thus making Barber the relief back.  However, if concerns about Jones durability prove accurate, we could see Barber emerge again as the featured RB for the Cowboys.

37 – Darren Sproles (27)

As evidenced by the acquisition of Mathews to replace LT, the Chargers did not view Sproles as an every down back.  While that is true, as a receiver he can still be a terror for opposing defenses to cover.

Despite the presence of Tomlinson, Sproles posted 45 catches for 497 yards and averaged 31.1 yards receiving per game.  As evidence of his big play ability, he led all RBs in average yards per catch (11.0), yards after the catch (12.5 with a minimum 20 receptions) and receiving TDs (tied with Slaton at 4).  He was third best in first down receptions with 20.

Until Ryan Matthews gets the hang of the pro game, Sproles will probably be leaned on heavily, making him a decent flex starter in PPR leagues in the interim.

38 – Lendale White (26)

Lenwhale (sorry, couldn’t resist) cut tequila out of his diet and lost a lot of weight coming into the 2009 season.  Unfortunately, we never saw what the leaner and meaner White could accomplish, because Chris Johnson’s heroics kept him on the bench.  For the year, White had only 64 rushes for 222 yards and 2 TDs.

White is reunited with his college coach, Pete Carroll and could well emerge as the most productive back in a RBBC mess that includes Leon Washington and Justin Forsett.  It should be remembered that in 2008 he had 200 carries for 773 yards and 15 TDs.

39 – Tim Hightower (24)

Beanie Wells is expected to become the Cards featured back, but Hightower has been such a factor in the passing game that he should retain decent value, particularly in PPR leagues.

Among 2009 RBs, Hightower finished # 2 in receptions (63), # 6 in receiving yards (428) and # 2 in receiving first downs (22).  With Leinart going through an adjustment period, Hightower will probably still be leaned on heavily to move the chains in third down situations.

Seventh Tier

Definitely some promise here, but all the stars would have to align properly.  

40 – Tashard Choice (26)

Choice is still the # 3 RB in Dallas behind Jones and Barber. However it should be remembered that he looked like an every down back when he was the temporary starter while Barber was injured in 2008.  Choice remains a good player to stash and hold.

41 – Lawrence Maroney (25)

It was expected that after some costly goal line fumbles late in the season, Lawrence Maroney would find himself either traded or cut from the Patriots roster.  He somehow survived and still remains atop the RB depth chart, as New England did not address the RB position among their 12 draft selections.

So, there is still hope for his owners that this former first round draft pick of 2006 can turn things around.  I would doubt that happens, but the fact that his situation has not changed suggests that Bill Belichick has more confidence in Maroney than previously believed.

42 – Justin Forsett (25)

Leon Washington’s timetable for return to action is uncertain and there are lingering questions about whether Lendale White can cut it even if he is sharing the RB duties.  This means that it might be Justin Forsett is the player to acquire in what appears to be a RBBC mess in Seattle. 

Despite his small size at 5-8 and 190 lbs, Forsett gave a fairly account of himself at times last year, rushing 114 times for 619 yards, averaging a nifty 5.4 yards per carry (which was fourth best in the league).

If Washington is not able to make it back, then logically Forsett could step into the complimentary role to White that Pete Carroll may have intended for Washington.

In the alternative, Forsett might be good enough, as some believe, to become the full fledged starter (a la Jamal Charles, who was also just considered a third down back).

43 – Fred Jackson (29)

Fred Jackson’ stock took a big hit on draft day after the Bills selected C. J. Spiller.  There is some short term value, as Jackson should remain the lead RB until Spiller is integrated in the mix. 

There is also the possibility that Buffalo could use some sort of RBBC for the entire 2010 season.  In any event, Jackson will still be worth rostering in PRR leagues, as his pass catching skill will keep him on the field in third and long situations.

44 – Willis McGahee (29)

McGahee only had 544 yards rushing as the second banana to Ray Rice, but his TD production was very nice, scoring 12 times over the course of the 2009 season.  Will we see that again this year?  Hard to say – his production was erratic scoring 3 TDs once, 2 TDs three times, 1 TD on 3 occasions, while not visiting the end zone at all in 6 contests.

45 – Jonathan Dwyer* (21) Steelers

At one time Jonathan Dwyer was projected to be taken in the draft among the top RBs of his class.  However, for some reason, this player who was once so highly regarded slipped all the way to the sixth round.

Perhaps it was because he had a poor combine showing in which he looked doughy and out of shape.  Or maybe the reports were true of a failed combine drug test for amphetamines – although Dwyer claims it was prescribed medication for a medical condition and it was something that all NFL teams were already aware of.

Despite the draft free fall, Dwyer still has his believers and I keep hearing talk of the Steelers using him as a goal line back.  If there is any truth to that, then he should be ranked higher than where I currently have him.  At present, though, he just seems a handcuff for the Mendenhall owner or for those who are in a long term rebuilding mode.

Eighth Tier

You might still find good value in this group if you are lucky.

46 – Marshawn Lynch (24)

I traded for him in the offseason and not only did he remain on the Bills, but the RBBC situation he was in was rendered even worse by the addition of Spiller.

I am hoping that Lynch will follow the same career path as Cedric Benson, and that he will eventually flourish if he lands on the right team in the right situation. When that will be is anyone’s guess, but I am hearing rumors of a trade to St. Louis to be Steven Jackson’s backup (which is probably too good to be true).

47 – Ricky Williams (33)

Ricky Williams (along with Thomas Jones) proved that there is life beyond 30 for RBs, carrying the ball 241 times for 1121 yards and 11 TDs at the tender age of 32.  He also had 35 receptions for another 264 yards plus 2 TDs.

However Ronnie Brown will be back and Brandon Marshall has been added to the receiving corps.  So, one would imagine that the Dolphins will be rushing less and that Williams role in the offense will be greatly reduced. 

Williams was a pleasant surprise last year, but he is unlikely to come anywhere close to those numbers again and at 33, he is living on borrowed time as an NFL back.

48 – James Starks* (24) Packers

James Starks has been compared to Fred Jackson and this sixth round pick could well find a niche in the Green Bay offense.  He lacks bulldozing power, but might be quick and athletic enough to eventually emerge as an every down RB.  In the meantime, he makes a nice compliment/backup for Ryan Grant

49 – Joe McKnight* (22) Jets

McKnight was hyped as the next Reggie Bush when he came to U.S.C. but fell well short of expectations.  After being drafted by the Jets, he now has to fill the shoes of Leon Washington.  He got off to a rocky start in mini-camp but is a quick, speedy and versatile player.  He is not starter quality material, but could well become an adequate replacement for Washington.

50 – Leon Washington (28)

The Jets unloaded Leon Washington in trade to the Seahawks, and it may have been due to dissatisfaction with his contract demands/complaints from last year or perhaps it was just a general housecleaning of the old guard at RB.

There is also the possibility that Washington is damaged goods.  He had a serious leg fracture in 2009 and recent reports noted that he is currently has a rod in his leg that he may be playing with (!).  There is a risk in taking Washington that he may never again be the player he was before the injury.

Assuming Washington fully recovers, it is expected that his role would be that of a variation of Reggie Bush from Pete Carroll’s U.S.C. offense, with Lendale White reprising his complimentary role. If that happens, perhaps rather than call this duo Thunder N’ Lightning we could dub them Wash N’ Wear.  

51 – Lex Hilliard (26)

Ronnie Brown is fragile and all the herbal remedies in the world can’t prevent age from catching up with Ricky Williams.  Hilliard is a big, bruising back and a great pass catcher.  He has loads of potential and if things break right, he could find himself the # 1 RB for the Dolphins.  Definitely worth a roster spot if you got the space.  

52 – Carnel Williams (28)    

Cadillac is a gamer but his value is diminished from a history of knee injuries and being in a crowded backfield in Tampa Bay.

While his return to action in 2009 was the comeback “feel good” story of the season, he numbers weren’t that spectacular - 210 carries for 821 yards, with only 4 TDs, along with a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry.

53 – LaDainian Tomlinson (31)

Being based in L.A., I saw most of the San Diego games last year and I came away with the impression that Tomlinson has lost most of what make him a special back.

It looked to me like he just doesn’t have it any more – which the Chargers seemed to confirm late in the season by keeping him on the bench in goal line situations (instead going with the diminutive Darren Sproles).

Tomlinson is an adequate backup to Greene and will be used to keep him fresh, while probably getting a few TDs along the way.  But I think that Fantasy owners who draft him hoping to get something resembling the LT of years’ past will be disappointed.

Ninth Tier

Backups, players who have seen better days and some assorted long term prospects.

54 – Bernard Scott (26)

Haven’t seen much of what he can really do, but he is the backup to Cedric Benson and if Benson is injured Scott would have great short term value.

55 – Jerome Harrison (27)

Eric Mangini had said at the NFL owner’s meeting in March, that he was confident that Jerome Harrison can be an every down back in 2010.  However, he must have changed his mind (or it was changed for him by Mike Holmgren) as the Browns took Hardesty in the draft to be their RB of the future.

There is a possibility that Harrison will defy expectations and hang on to the starter’s spot or be in some sort of RBBC with Hardesty.  However, it appears that he has little long term Fantasy value at the moment.  I tried to move him in one league to the Hardesty owner, but was turned down flat for a 2.08 rookie draft pick.  

56 – Correll Buckhalter (33)

Buckhalter is getting long in the tooth, but doesn’t have a lot of mileage on him.  Plus, many observers felt that last season he outplayed rookie Knowshon Moreno.  Buckhalter has value assuming he continues in some sort of RBBC with Moreno.

57 – Thomas Jones (32)

Thomas Jones had a second consecutive career year, but age seemed to suddenly catch up with him at the end of the season.

In his last 6 games (Weeks 15-17 and the playoffs) he averaged less than 3 yards per carry (except against the Colts, who had a poor run defense and pulled their starters in the third quarter).

Jones looks to me to be Charles backup and nothing more than that.  The fact that he might see some goal line touches is about the only thing that causes me to rank him this highly.  If he is not used in that capacity, then his only value would be as a handcuff to the Charles owner.

58 – Lynell Hamilton (25)

Hamilton is the backup behind Pierre Thomas and with only Reggie Bush to contend with, would become the starter if Thomas were injured.  He didn’t look too bad in limited action last season.  He is worth a flyer due to his situation alone.

59 – Javon Ringer (23)

Ringer is currently penciled is as the backup behind Chris Johnson and has value just for that.  However, I would not be surprised to see him passed on the depth chart by LaGarrette Blount. 

60 – LaGarrette Blount* (24) Titans

Blount is a two-down 240 pound bruiser with 4.62 speed, and scored 17 TDs and 1002 yards, at 7.3 YPC as a junior at Oregon.

There was Heisman talk entering the 2009 season, but he ended up being suspended for most of the year after punching out a Boise state player in a post-game scuffle. Prior to this, there had been two prior team suspensions for not following team rules/regulations. 

It is an understatement to say that there are character issues with Blount, but he does have the talent to overtake Javon Ringer as the backup to Chris Johnson.  If that happens, it would leave him one injury away from starting at Tennessee.

61 – Anthony Dixon* (23) 49ers

Dixon is an overachieving workhorse type back, who was the bell-cow for Mississippi State.  Over his college career he amassed 910 carries for 4233 yards and 42 TDs.  He seems a must handcuff for Frank Gore owners, but the same thing was said about Glen Coffee last year, so the Gore owner would be advised not to reach for him in drafts.

62 – Rashad Jennings (25)

Jaguars’ coach Jack Del Rio is on record saying that Rashad Jennings has a bright future.  He is worth rostering in leagues just for being MJD’s backup, even for those who don’t own Jones-Drew.

63 – Charles Scott* (22) Eagles

At 5-11 and 239 lbs, Scott was a solid performer at LSU and might eventually work into being a complimentary back for the lighter and smaller LeSean McCoy.  Best case scenario would be that Scott eventually plays Correll Buckhalter to McCoy’s Brian Westbrook. 

64 – Derrick Ward (30)

Derrick Ward was a trendy sleeper pick last season.  He arrived in Tampa Bay on the heels of rushing for 1025 yards with the Giants in 2008 as the backup to Brandon Jacobs.

For some reason, he couldn’t duplicate that success, putting up a disappointing 409 yards and 1 TD, while playing second fiddle to Cadillac Williams. 

Perhaps he really isn’t that good after all, but with only Williams and Earnest Graham as competition, he could end up the starter for the Bucs.  Considering he can be had for virtually nothing, he is worth taking a roster spot if you have the space.

65 – Larry Johnson (31)

Larry Johnson looks as good as any of the over-the-hill gang that is currently competing for the Redskins starting spot.  He is ranked above Clinton Portis and Willie Parker as he does not have the injury history of that duo.  But who knows what Shanahan will do?

66 – Arian Foster (24)

Arian Foster looked decent in limited action as the Texans’ starter late last season. 

However the drafting of Ben Tate killed his Fantasy value and his owners will always wonder what might have been if Tate had not been taken by Houston.

67 – Jason Snelling (27)

Jerious Norwood is listed as the backup to Michael Turner, but Jason Snelling outperformed him in relief when Turner was injured.  If Turner is hurt again, Snelling is probably the player to grab.

68 – Andre Brown (24)

Andre Brown was a promising draft pick for the Giants in 2009.  Many thought that he would leapfrog Ahmad Bradshaw and assume the role as backup to Brandon Jacobs for the departed Derrick Ward.

However, Brown was sidelined the entire 2009 season with an achilles injury and has been pretty much forgotten about in Fantasy circles.  Perhaps there is nothing to see here, but I recall that the guy reportedly once ran a 40 of 4.37, which (if true) is pretty amazing for a back that weighs 224 lbs.

69 – Jerious Norwood (27)

Norwood proved inadequate to be Michael Turner’s backup and for all practical purposes is third string behind Jason Snelling (although he listed as the # 2 on the depth char).  He still has some value as he is occasionally involved in passing downs, but is nothing more at this time than waiver wire fodder.

70 – Deji Karim* (24) Jaguars

Karim is a sixth round pick by the Jags who I hadn’t intended to include in my rankings, but I kept seeing him taken in the last round of rookie drafts, which piqued my interest. This player was completely off my radar but I will share a few tidbits I picked up when I did some research.

Karim is out of Southern Illinois and missed all of the 2008 season due to a torn patella in his knee.  He returned in 2009 and was named the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year.  He averaged 7.1 yards per carry and scored 19 all purpose TDs.  He is 5-9, 210 lbs and reportedly ran a sub 4.4 at his Pro Day (either a friendly timer or maybe he ran downhill).

Karim is behind Jones-Drew and Rashard Jennings on the depth chart, so it is hard to see any value barring injuries to the above two.  But, with the unusual draft interest I have seen in him, this is at least a name to be filed away for future reference. 

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I can be reached at jaycharles.johnson@gmail.com

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