The NFL draft is over, so it is time to update my Dynasty rankings, starting with the Quarterback position. This is not the dynasty rankings that Cuda Joe & Doc Diablo will provide later for the web site, but these are my thoughts and how I see it.

The players are ranked in the order that I would select them in a start-up Fantasy draft.  I use a 3 year time frame projection, with 2010 representing 50% of a player’s value, 2011 at 30% and 2012 and beyond at 20%.  

Here are my Top 50 Dynasty QBs, arranged in Tiers of roughly equivalent value, with the age the player will turn this year in parenthesis.  Rookies are designated by an asterisk after their name.

Tier 1

1 – Aaron Rodgers (27)

Rogers was the # 1 QB in most Fantasy leagues last year, throwing for 4434 yards with 30 TDs and only 7 INTs.  It is hard to argue against ranking him at the very top again, given his age and the fact that his receiving options are all returning.

The only knock against Rodgers would be his tendency to hold on to the ball too long.  He had a league leading 50 sacks in 2009 (tied with Roethlisberger) and all this repeated battering does pose a greater injury risk.  However, his offensive line was offering him better protection late last season and hopefully that will continue in 2010.

2 – Drew Brees (31)

One probably can’t go wrong with making Brees your franchise QB (unless you believe in the Madden curse).  In 2009 he again put up great numbers, leading the league with 34 TDs, while passing for 4388 yards and 11 INTs.  He is also incredibly durable, missing only one game due to injury in the last 6 seasons.

If you want to nitpick, his production tailed off slightly in Weeks 15 & 16 - in both instances throwing for under 300 yards and having just 1 TD (perhaps wearing down a bit at the end of the season).  Also, if the running game or defense are working well, he is not called upon to pass as often (minor points but noted to explain why some weeks his Fantasy numbers can be disappointing).

3 – Philip Rivers (29)

As LT began his decline, the Chargers started morphing into a more pass-oriented team.  Rivers numbers of 2009 reflected this trend, with a career best 4254 passing yards, along with 28 TDS and 9 INTs.   

What makes Rivers even more attractive as a Fantasy QB is that he had the highest DVOA statistic in 2009.  DVOA is a statistical matrix used by Football Outsiders that looks at QB productivity (http://www.footballoutsiders.com).  In simple terms, it just means that he makes the most of his opportunities, getting more value per play than his competitors.

Although an adequate replacement had been found for LT in Ryan Mathews, this trend towards a greater emphasis in the passing game should continue in 2010, unless San Diego becomes more run oriented with this rookie (which seems unlikely).

4 – Peyton Manning (34)

As he is closing in on his mid-30’s, retirement is the only real concern one would have in selecting Manning as their starting QB.  However, on that subject he was quoted in 2009 as saying that “it (retiring) is not really on my radar at this point.”

I would imagine that the incentive to break what few records are left, along with the desire to get another Super Bowl ring (or two) will probably keep him in the game for another 4-5 years.  And since Warner and Favre were both going strong after turning 38, there is no reason to believe that Peyton can not be as productive.

Of course, the elephant in the room for Fantasy players is the Colts penchant for resting Manning late in the season, after clinching the home field advantage for the playoffs.  It is very discouraging to see your star QB on the bench in Weeks 15 and 16.  And having his backup is of little value as those who subbed Curtis Painter will attest.

So, the tradeoff in owning Manning is weighing the value of his regular season production of about 4000 yards and 30 TDs against his unavailability when you really need him (in your Fantasy playoffs).  If you can’t handle this annual dilemma, then the three players listed above (or perhaps a few below) should be your QB choice instead.

Tier 2

5 – Tony Romo (30)

Tony Romo is on the cusp on the top tier and the only thing keeping me from moving him to that level is that I need to see him go two consecutive years without a December slump or big game miscue.

Arguably he proved that he has what it takes in the Cowboys 24-17 victory in Week 15 over the Saints in New Orleans.  The playoffs were on the line, but despite the deafening crowd noise, he looked cool behind center and handled the pressure as well as any QB I have seen in a big game. 

His stats haven’t gotten a lot of attention, but he passed for 4483 yards last year, third best in the league (above Rogers, Brees and Rivers).  He only had 26 TDs (same as in 2008) but he is becoming more accurate and reduced his INTs for a third year in a row from 19 in 2007 and 14 in 2008 to 9 in 2009.

He has great receiving options in Austin Miles, Jason Witten and RB Felix Jones.  Dez Bryant has been added to the mix and if that rookie is as good as advertised, the Cowboys will eventually be able to go toe-to-toe with the best offenses in the league.

6 – Matt Schaub (29)

I am amazed that I see keep seeing Matt Schaub being referred to as “injury prone” on the message boards.  One would think that his starting all 16 games of last season would have ended such talk, but it still persists.

Let me repeat again what I said last year in my rankings – if you look into the circumstances, Schaub’s prior injuries were all of a fluky nature.  Durability should not be a concern with him, no more so than it would be with any other QB at this level.

In any event, Schaub not only finished # 3 overall in Fantasy scoring, but also led all QBs in passing with 4770 yards for the season, averaging 298 yards a game.  His 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio is a minor drawback (29TDs, 15 INTs) but not enough to downgrade him significantly.

What I really like about Schaub is that the Texans are a young and improving team.  His receiving options are all returning and the running game should be much improved with the addition of the underrated Ben Tate.  I see no reason to believe he should not do as well as last year.

7 – Tom Brady (33)

From a statistical standpoint, 2009 was the second best of Tom Brady’s career, with his passing for over 4400 yards and 28 TDs.  However, despite the numbers, there are a few things that concern me about his long term outlook.

His favorite receiving option, Wes Welker, had a serious knee injury in the last game of the prior season.  He will start 2010 on the sidelines and while his replacement in Julian Edelman seems adequate, he is no Welker. 

Add to that, Randy Moss will probably be moving on to greener pastures in 2011. Tom Brady was a Top 10 QB without Moss, but he never would have put up the gaudy numbers we saw in 2007 if Moss had not been with the Patriots.

Finally there is the perception in some quarters that Brady has not fully recovered from the knee injury that sidelined him for the 2008 year.  His most recent stats would indicate that is not the case, but he didn’t look as good to me as he did prior to the injury.

Brady has indicated he intends to play until he is about 40, so he certainly should be a productive QB for the three year time frame I look at.  However, for the reasons mentioned above, I just can’t be as enthusiastic about him as I have been in past years.

Tier 3

Now that all the sure things are gone, we get into the tier where one has to roll the dice…

8 – Kevin Kolb (26)

We have not seen enough to say that Kevin Kolb can cut it as a starting QB, but I am willing to go out on a limb for this player.  I have to believe that the Eagles knew what they were doing when they essentially bet the farm on Kolb by trading Donovan McNabb to a division rival.

If they feel Kevin Kolb is just as good as McNabb and is the future this franchise, than who am I to second guess them?

Despite an adjustment period that will cut into his Fantasy numbers early this season, it will be hard for Kolb to go wrong in the long term with weapons like Jackson, Maclin, Celek and McCoy to work with. This is a young talented offense and Fantasy owners who stock on Eagles players could easily be set for at least the next five years.

9 – Jay Cutler (27)

It seemed to come together for Cutler near the end of the year, but it was a case of “too little too late” for his Fantasy owners.  While he threw for 3666 yards and had 27 TDs, he also led the NFL in INTs with 26 (a real killer in leagues that penalize for that).

The addition of Mike Martz as OC will obviously help Cutler’s short term numbers, providing he can withstand the battering that all Martz’s QBs seem to take. 

However, if the Bears have another losing season, then both Lovie Smith and Martz will be shown the door at the end of the year.  If that is the case, then Cutler would again be faced with a new offensive scheme in 2011 which would probably be to his detriment.

I don’t own Cutler in any league, but I am still bullish on his long term value.  He has the arm and the gunslinger mentality that potentially could make him one of the great ones.  He does have some attitude and maturity issues, but they are not the deterrent for me as they are with some Fantasy owners.

At this point, he is on a team that believes in him and has some promising receiving weapons to work with in Aromashodu, Hester, Knox and Bennett.  I think it is just a matter of time before Cutler has a break-out year, but I don’t know how long one will have to wait.

10 – Matt Stafford (22)

Matt Stafford already possessed the requisite NFL arm and talent, but the Lions improved his situation tenfold with their offseason acquisitions.

To start opposite Calvin Johnson, the underrated Nate Burleson was brought in as the # 2 WR.  They also added one of the best pass catching TEs in the league with Tony Scheffler.  To top it off, they drafted Jahvid Best, a dynamic speedy RB who also has fine pass catching ability.

Being on the Lions (who have shown a decade of ineptitude) seems to be his major limitation.  Detroit is still a few years away from being playoff caliber, however that may be viewed as a Fantasy positive since the team will usually be playing from behind.

I must admit that there is considerable risk in owning Stafford, but I believe it is outweighed by his upside.  I became completely sold on him after watching his gutsy comeback performance in the Week 11 for the 38-37 win over the Browns.

11 – Joe Flacco (25)

Flacco appeared to regress somewhat in his sophomore year, but that may have been related to a late season hip injury more than anything else.  As you may recall, he started fast and was the # 6 ranked Fantasy QB six weeks into the season.

In fact, it is interesting to note that his 6584 passing yards over two seasons ranks as # 5 in NFL history, behind Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Drew Bledsoe and Jeff Garcia. 

Certainly the Ravens have done their part to aid in Flacco’s development.  The addition of Anquan Boldin gives him one of the best move-the-chains/possession receivers in the league.  They brought in Donte Stallworth for vertical speed.  Derrick Mason was resigned and makes a good third option.  And two rookie TEs were added in the middle rounds to give support to and eventually replace the aging Todd Heap.

One shouldn’t forget that the conventional wisdom for QBs is that it takes them about 3-5 years to fully develop at the pro level. That would indicate it will be another year or two before we see Flacco at his best.  In meantime, things seem to be moving in the right direction for his eventual success.

12 – Matt Ryan (25)

For some reason, I am not completely sold on Matt Ryan.  Perhaps it was that while Ryan threw for more TDs in his second year in the league (22 up from 16 in 2008) he dropped in other statistical categories.

His QB rating went from 87.7 to 80.9.  His pass completion percentage dropped from 61.1 % to 58.3 %.  His passing yards per game declined from 215.0 to 208.3, along with his yards-per-attempt which were 6.5, down from 7.9 in 2008.  One would expect that he would show improvement in all categories over his rookie year, but that was not the case.

I am probably reading too much into these numbers as most Fantasy analysts still anticipate a bright future for Ryan.  However, I am not going to get on the bandwagon until I see some better stats or some better receiving options brought in to compliment Roddy White and the aging Tony Gonzalez.

Tier 4

In this tier, the player’s value is diminished by a variety of factors – some haven’t proven themselves, while others may be limited by their situation, and a few have risk factors that question their long term viability.

13 – Chad Henne (25)

I really liked this guy before the Dolphins acquired Brandon Marshall in trade.

He has a rocket arm and in three of the last five games of the season he threw for over 300 yards.  He is a year or two away from being Fantasy starter material but be patient, as he should be worth the wait.

14 – Eli Manning (29)

Eli Manning is probably about the most solid backup you can find and is fairly decent if you have to rely upon him as a starter.  No, he is not as durable as brother Peyton, but despite the painful plantar fasciitis foot injury, he did play all 16 games last season.

And it must be noted that he passed for over 4000 yards and had 27 TDs in 2009.  He is not a sexy pick (as they say) but certainly one of the better choices at this level for those who tend to be more conservative in their approach to Fantasy Football.

15 – Ben Roethlisberger (27)

Roethlisberger will be suspended for a minimum of four games (perhaps as many as six if the league is not satisfied with his progress).  Since I count the current year as representing 50% of value, Big Ben takes a big hit in my Dynasty rankings.

Think about it - with the bye week he will miss at least 5 games, which amounts to about 40% of the 2010 Fantasy regular season.  What this means in practical terms is that you will have to work around not having him until Week 6 of the season.  That missed time could well prevent you from making your league playoffs.

In addition there is no guarantee he will be on the Steelers in 2011 and beyond.  The team reportedly was shopping him for trade and a deal probably would have been done except the Steelers did not want to unload a second problem child at fire sale prices (see Santonio Holmes).

It also shouldn’t be forgotten that he has a history of concussions.  Plus, one more bar hopping incident that goes wrong will result in him facing a one year league suspension.

There are just too many things going on here that I don’t like.  He is a bargain at this level if he stays in Pittsburgh and out of trouble – but I would rather let someone else take him and worry about the considerable downside risk.

16 – Mark Sanchez (24)

One certainly has to be intrigued with Mark Sanchez after the promise he showed in his rookie season and now with Santonio Holmes being added to his receiving corps. 

However Sanchez upside may ultimately be limited by his being on a run-oriented team with a defensive minded coach.  Given his situation, it is possible that while he turns into a playoff caliber QB in the real world, he may never put up Top 10 Fantasy numbers.

17 – Donovan McNabb (34)

Donovan McNabb may have 2-3 good years left in him as a QB.  Even so, his Fantasy production will be limited by the simple fact that he just doesn’t have the quality receiving weapons in Washington that he did with Philadelphia.

In all fairness, John Elway was about the same age when Mike Shanahan arrived in Denver, so it is not inconceivable that he could again work miracles with a QB who is seemingly on the downside of his career.  Perhaps this stint with the Redskins will have a happy ending – but I remain skeptical.

18 – Carson Palmer (31)

Despite making the playoffs, Palmer’s stats were nothing to write home about. He had a QB rating of 83.6, with his passing for 3094 yards, 21 TDs and 13 INTs.  Things look worse when those numbers are compared to his high water mark of 2006, with a QB rating was 101.1 and a stat line of 3836 yards, 32 TDs and 12 INTs.

The official explanation is that the Bengals have become a run-oriented team and that Palmer simply does not have to pass as often.  However, some observers don’t buy that story and say that the real problem is with Palmer’s elbow, which he injured early in 2008. 

He declined off-season surgery following that season and elected rehab (which may not have taken).  Reports from those who watched all his 2009 games reported that he had difficulty making the downfield throws.

Game watchers also noted that late in the season, Palmer seemed to lack zip on all his passes, and was also the missing the mark on his short throws (although if that is related to the elbow problem or is something in his mechanics is unclear at this time).

In other words, there are some major red flags about Carson Palmer.  I may be adding 2 + 2 and getting 5, and if I am interpreting this wrong, then he should be ranked much higher.  But if I am right, he probably doesn’t even belong at this level.

Tier 5

We are now in the grab bag tier of QBs where you take a deep breath when you make your draft selection and hope that you have guessed right.

19 – Matt Leinart (27)

Owning Matt Leinart is not recommended for the feint of heart.  He is replacing Kurt Warner and no one knows how this will ultimately play out.  It is true he hasn’t shown much so far - but the failure to beat out a HOF QB with a late career renaissance can hardly be viewed as a negative.

If you look at the stats of his 4-7 rookie season, he fared better than the freshman campaigns of Sanchez, Stafford and Freeman.  If you compare his 2006 numbers to the top three for the class of 2009, you will find that Leinart bested them with a higher QB ranking, a higher pass completion percentage, and a better TD-to-INT ratio.

If you want another hopeful note, he did look sharp in his only 2009 start, completing 21 of 31 for 200 yards and no INTs.  The Cardinals would have won that game but for the last minute heroics of Vince Young, leading the Titans on an 18 play, 99-yard drive to win 20-17.

Don’t worry about Derek Anderson.  Coach Ken Whisenhunt has stated emphatically that Matt Leinart is the team’s QB.  Yes, if he fails to move the offense and the team loses 3 games in a row, he will be on a short leash.  But I think he can cut it and the time spent on the bench learning and observing (like Aaron Rodgers) may prove to have been invaluable.

20 – Alex Smith (26)

A make-or-break year for Alex Smith.  Fortunately, David Carr was brought as a backup, not as a competitor. So, Smith will get the opportunity to prove he belongs behind center in the NFL without having to look over his shoulder.  However, that is not to say that if Smith struggles, Carr will not be given a shot. 

In any event, assuming Smith hangs and solidifies his future in San Francisco, he has the upside of a serviceable, but unspectacular starter and at worst would be solid QB backup material.

21 – Josh Freeman (22)

Josh Freeman was the pleasant surprise among the rookie QBs of 2009.  Despite some dreadful stats (1857 yards passing, 10 TDs and 18 INTs in 10 games started) he did live up to the hype as being the future QB for the Tampa Bay franchise.

Coach Raheem Morris stated in January that the top offseason priority would be the further development of Freeman.  In that respect, the Bucs came through in the draft, by providing Freeman with two potential Top 20 WR prospects in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams.

If Arrelious Benn is as good as advertised and if Williams can keep his head on straight, then both of these prospects will be starters this year.  Tampa Bay really only has Kellen Winslow has a receiving threat but combined with these promising rookies and his running ability, Freeman looks like decent backup material.

22 – Charlie Whitehurst (28)

Those watching the draft unfold kept waiting for the Seahawks to select a QB - but it never happened.  That must mean that they now consider Charlie Whitehurst to be the future QB of this franchise (or at least until next year).

Talk about dealing with an unknown quantity.  After 4 years in the NFL, the only thing we have to judge Whitehurst on is footage from Chargers’ preseason games.  Obviously the new brain trust in Seattle saw something in him that not only justified the trade but kept them from not addressing this position in the draft.

Officially, Pete Carroll has stated that Whitehurst will be given the opportunity to compete for the starting job at QB.  If I read the tea leaves correctly, he should replace Matt Hasselbeck behind center sometime this season.  All things considered, his value is highly speculative.

23 – Brett Favre (41)

At the age of 40 Favre statistically had the best year of his career, finishing the season with 4,202 passing yards, 33 TDs, and only 7 INTs.  Also his passer rating was an eye-popping 107.2.

So the question for Fantasy owners is, assuming Favre does return and duplicates last year’s stats - how much would it be worth to you for perhaps only one more guaranteed year of production?

I put Favre at this level, but those who need a starting QB for the 2010 season and are not concerned with his absence in future years can move him up accordingly.

Tier 6

We are now in the group comprised generally of rookie unknowns or veteran players who can’t be viewed as much more than backup or depth material.

24 – Jimmy Clausen* (23) Panthers

Clausen was considered the most NFL ready of the rookies and landed in an ideal situation in Carolina.  There is a good offense already in place and he only has Matt Moore standing between him and the starting spot.

But wait, there is trouble is paradise.  A major worry for anyone acquiring Clausen would be the possibility that this could be John Fox’s last year as the Panthers HC. 

A new regime in 2011 might view Clausen as Mike Holmgren did Brady Quinn (a choice made by prior management) and go in another direction at the QB position.

Perceived character issues also cause some hesitation. Clausen has been described as “cocky and arrogant,” and some question his leadership ability.  I tend to dismiss these concerns as overblown, and quite frankly I don’t care if Clausen is full of himself, as long as he turns out to be a good Fantasy QB.

25 – Sam Bradford* (23) Rams

Sam Bradford was ranked as the best QB prospect of his class, but the Rams are a horrible team and they will be forced to start him this year to justify their investment (and also to buy Steve Spagnuolo another year with the new team ownership). 

While rookie QBs have done well in recent years there are also examples that pushing a youngster at this position before they are ready might cause more harm than good (Joey Harrington and David Carr are cited as examples - although they might not have succeeded anyway).

So, we have a QB with a history of shoulder injuries who will be learning on the fly with no proven receiving options.  He will probably be running for his life on all plays except when he hands off to Steven Jackson.  This doesn’t look like a very promising situation for me, but my view of this may be too short term.

26 – Vince Young (27)

Young could start for the Titans for another five years, but I can’t get too excited about adding him to my team.  Unfortunately, his success in the won/loss column never seems to translate into good Fantasy stats.

If you extrapolate his numbers from 12 games last season, you have about 2500 yards passing, 13 TDs and 9 INTs, along with 400 yards and another 3-4 TDs on the ground.  That roughly matches his best year in 2007, in which the numbers were 2546 passing yards, 9 TDs, 17 INTs (ouch!) 395 yards rushing and 3 TDs.

I like Young as a bye-week or short term injury fill-in, but that is about it.  What you see is what you get - there is very little upside.

27 – Tim Tebow* (23) Broncos

With a first round reach, Josh McDaniels has staked his future in Denver on Tim Tebow.  To get some return on his investment, we should see Tebow used in limited action this year, probably in a variation of the Wildcat.  Beyond that, I imagine the ideal timetable is having him start games sometime in 2011.

The only problem is that Tebow was considered to be a 2-3 year project and McDaniels may not last long enough as head coach to see if the faith in his first round selection is justified. 

Assuming McDaniels is safe in 2010, if he has losing seasons both this year and next, fan discontent may reach such a level that owner Pat Bowlen is forced to make a head coaching change.  If that is the case, then the Tebow experiment will probably be over, as a new regime would probably look in another direction for their franchise QB.

28 – Colt McCoy* (24) Browns

Colt McCoy appears to be in a promising situation and one might assume that at some point he will emerge as the starter in Cleveland.  However, the only thing that we can say for certain he won’t see the field in 2010.

General Manager Mike Holmgren told James Walker of ESPN “We did not draft him to play this year.” 

Coach Eric Mangini agreed with Holmgren’s assessment “I am completely comfortable with a quarterback coming in a spending time to develop his craft.”

Well that all sounds very nice, but I keep wondering if McCoy really had so much going for him, why didn’t another franchise select him before the # 85 spot and why did Cleveland pass on him three times before adding him to their roster?  In any event we won’t know anything more about him until 2011 at the earliest.

29 – Jason Campbell (29)

Campbell didn’t really look that bad in Washington and considering the constant changeover in offensive coordinators with the Redskins he performed adequately.

The Raiders have a history of giving new life to QBs that have failed or were mediocre elsewhere (i.e. Jim Plunkett and Rich Gannon) and Campbell breaking out with this franchise probably has more merit than one would think.

The Raiders were much better last year than their record indicated, and beat the Eagles, Bengals and the Steelers.  They have good receiving options in Zack Miller, Schilens, Murphy and maybe Heyward-Bey).  With an adequate QB like Campbell they have a decent shot at a playoff wildcard spot (conceding the AFC West division to the Chargers).  

Considering the expectations are so low, Campbell could turn out to be the Fantasy sleeper/surprise QB of 2010.

30 – Matt Cassel (28)

Maybe he really was a product of the New England system.  He sure didn’t look like a clone of Tom Brady in his first year with the Chiefs.  Cassel must perform adequately this year or Kansas City will look elsewhere in 2011 at the QB position. 

His supporters note that he has had only two seasons of playing time as a starter and that in his first year in Kansas City he had to learn an entirely new offense.

It is certainly an encouraging sign that he will be working with former Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss.  Perhaps Weiss will put Cassel back on track to being the QB that the Chiefs thought he was when they drafted him.

31 – David Garrard (32)

Did I miss something here?  How did the Jaguars not draft a QB when it is known (although not stated publicly) that are not completely satisfied with Garrard?

Maybe they like Garrard better than we think, and turning 32 this year he is not really that old.  He actually was a decent backup last year and finished at the #15 Fantasy QB.  No reason to believe he couldn’t do just as well in 2010.

32 – Matt Moore (26)

Look for Matt Moore to try to play Drew Brees to Clausen’s Philip Rivers. Don’t be surprised if Moore keeps Clausen on the bench this year.

33 – Kyle Orton (29)

Kyle Orton is the starter at Denver until Tebow is worked into the lineup.  He probably has the starter position locked up for 2010.  However, if the Broncos have an extended losing streak, McDaniels may be moved by crowd chants of “We Want Tebow!” to make the transition happen sooner rather than later.

34 – Tarvaris Jackson (27)

Well, he is the starter if Brett doesn’t retire.  And the fact the Vikings passed on a QB in the draft means that Childress still believes in him.  But this is a player I would roster only if I were very thin at the QB position.

35 – Dennis Dixon (25)

It was first believed that Dixon would be the Steelers’ QB for Roethlisberger’s suspension period - however it has been Byron Leftwich who has been taking snaps with the first team unit in mini-camp. So, at this time the opening day starter is not completely settled.

Dixon statistically did not do much in the one game he started last year, passing for only 145 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT.  However he did enough to win the game and looked more than adequate behind center. 

Dixon is worth a roster space if you have the room.  Rumors keep swirling that Big Ben may be traded in 2011 and even if not, Dixon might be a worth taking a flyer on given Big Ben’s concussion history.

36 – Matt Hasselbeck (35)

The placeholder for the Seahawks until Charlie Whitehurst takes over.  Hasselbeck should be an adequate short term starter or bye-week fill in until then.

Tier 7

The remaining players fall into what I call the CCC (complete crapshoot category).

37 – John Skelton* (22) Cardinals

Skelton is certainly worth a late round flyer if one has the roster space.  Leinart still has to prove himself and Derek Anderson was unimpressive with the Browns. 

If the above two prove not to be the answer, then Ken Whisenhunt might see what Skelton has to offer.  In the meantime, Skelton locks down the # 3 slot in Arizona and then has to hope that they don’t address the QB position again in the 2011 draft.

38 – Dan LeFevour* (23) Bears

While he lacks the ideal NFL type arm, my impression of Dan LeFevour is that he possesses many of the skills and most of the intangibles to succeed at the pro level if is given the opportunity.

Unfortunately, Chicago was not a particularly good landing spot, as Jay Cutler seems entrenched there for the next five years.  However, Mike Martz QBs tend to get beat up a bit, so it is possible that LeFevour might see some action in a game or two this year.

39 – Derek Anderson (27)

Anderson will be the starter if Leinart stumbles or is injured.  If that happens, expect it to be a stop-gap measure, as Anderson looked mediocre when he was behind center for the Browns.

40 – Brady Quinn (26)

Brady Quinn can’t catch a break.  Mangini didn’t care for the QB he inherited and Mike Holmgren dumped him in trade for a bag of donuts.  It looked like he could maybe turn things around in Denver with only Orton in front of him, but then the Broncos drafted Tebow.

Orton has a one year contract and may be gone in 2011.  If Tebow is not ready to be given the reins, then Quinn maybe gets one more opportunity at proving he belongs in the NFL.

It is an unlikely scenario that Quinn will be able to turn this situation into something positive.  I am rooting that he can, as I never thought he was given a fair shot in Cleveland.  I often wonder how things would have turned out if the Raiders had selected him over Jamarcus Russell – I think he could have succeeded given the right situation.

41 – Michael Vick (30)

Vick’s main selling point as a QB was his running ability and he doesn’t have that any more.  His only value is as the backup to Kevin Kolb, who could fall flat on his face as the Eagles starter, but that doesn’t seem likely.

42 – David Carr (31)

Maturity has made Carr a decent backup and he didn’t look too bad in relief of Eli Manning last year.  He is clearly the backup to Alex Smith, but if Smith falters the 49ers will not hesitate in substituting Carr and the team may not miss a beat.

43 – Jevan Sneed* (23) Buccaneers

Before his senior year, this signal caller from Ole Miss was projected to go in the third round, but went undrafted and then was signed by the Bucs as a free agent.

Probably nothing to see here, but it is possible that Sneed could beat out Josh Johnson as the backup to Freeman, given that Johnson had a miserable QB rating of 50.9 in six games of 2009.

44 – Jake Delhomme (35)

Delhomme is a great Fantasy starting QB if he is facing your team defense. Outside of that, all one can hope for is that this change of scenery will result is some sort of late career resurrection.

45 – Seneca Wallace (30)

Wallace is familiar with the offense Mike Holmgren is installing in Cleveland, so logically he should be the starter.  However, Delhomme seems to have that spot locked up (unless he continues his penchant for throwing interceptions).  It should not shock anyone if Wallace displaces Delhomme sometime during the season.

46 – Mike Kafka* (23) Eagles

I doubt Kafka will be a trial for the Eagles but (bad jokes aside) he could eventually settle in as the backup to Kevin Kolb, as there is only Michael Vick is in front of him.  Although Kolb will remain the starter for the foreseeable future, if Kafka lasts long enough he might be traded to another team (ala Charlie Whitehurst).

47 – Levi Brown* (23) Bills

Buffalo inexplicably did not draft a QB with the exception of Brown in the seventh round.  Probably not much to see here, since little is known of this graduate from Troy University outside of one good game in his junior year against LSU.

That said, Brown is big (6’3” 229 lbs) mobile and has a solid arm.  Neither Trent Edwards nor Ryan Fitzpatrick have exactly set the world on fire, so Brown wouldn’t have to show much to give those guys a run for their money.  Unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

48 – Tony Pike* (24) Panthers

It is hard to be optimistic about Tony Pike after he was drafted on the same team that took Jimmy Clausen.  It is too bad, as despite his rail-thin build (6’6” 223 lbs) he has an NFL arm and in Cincinnati showed himself to be a team leader with good decision making ability.

In the coming year, Pike will have to prove he belongs on the Carolina roster as some sort of backup behind Moore and Clausen.  After that he will have to hope that fate intervenes and gives him an opportunity at a starting spot with this franchise or some other.

49 – Stephen McGee (27)

McGee was a developmental QB drafted by the Cowboys in the fourth round in 2009.  I don’t know much about him, but he was rostered in several of my Dynasty leagues last year.

He doesn’t have much of a future behind Tony Romo in Dallas and is still very much viewed as a work-in-progress.  However, some Fantasy owners still believe that he has starter upside and for that reason is at least worth keeping an eye on or perhaps adding to a team that is in a long term rebuilding mode that has the roster space.

50 – Jamarcus Russell (25)

After the signing of Jason Campbell, the rumor mill reported that Russell was refusing to take a pay cut and renegotiate his rookie contract.  It appeared that this player, the first overall pick of the 2007 draft, would be cut from the team.  However Russell did show up at the Raider’s first minicamp, so there is still a faint glimmer of hope for his future.

It would be in Russell’s best interest if he could remain in Oakland, as this team has an incentive to continue to develop him in the hopes that they might eventually recoup something on their megabucks investment. 

No matter how this plays out, the Fantasy value of Russell is close to nil and he is the leading candidate to edge Ryan Leaf for being considered the top NFL draft bust of all time.

Next – Dynasty RB rankings

I can be reached at jaycharles.johnson@gmail.com

^{Copyright © 2010 Jay Charles Johnson, all rights reserved}